Guoabong Wealth Management：If China ’s Boom is over, where will demand for commodities comer from？

SOLOW's Model is Explained in the Chart Below. Over Time, PeOPLE MOVE FROM RURAL TO Urban Areas and Contribute to Capital Accumulating and IncreasEd Productivi Ty. Concurrently, Family Size Steadily Decreases. Consumption Follows A Different Pattern: Initially, RURAL FARMERS CONSUME 100% of whatThey Produce. However, as Abundant Labor Joins The Modern Industrial Economy, Significant Capital Accum, and consumption as share of gdp . Eventually, Labor Becomes Scarce, WAGES Rise, Returns On Capital Decline, and a Country Enter a Massment PhaseThe time when laabor beComes scarce and wages start to rise is called the lenis turning point, and it has been: Stic of Developed Economies.

This Path of Development Has Been Followed Faithfully by Most Countries. We can see in the chart belW the Surge in Wages Peake in China Around the Le Leit WIS TURNING POINT, Which China Reacked Around 2015.

The Chart Below Shows the Evolution of the Consumption Share of GDP for Several Success Fonomies. It is NoteWorthy That China's Consumption Share of GDP Has. Not Risen as Expected. This is highlighted in the next chart, white shows the share of gdp for various CountriesAt different inceme levels. The explanation for this is that China has found it difficult to Abandon its debt-drivenTMENT MODEL. UFACTURING Exports, Infrastruction, and Armaments. This Trend has reinforced in the recent Years by Policies Aimed At Promotion"Productive forceds," PARTICULARLLLY FRONTIER Industries Considered to Be the Key Sectors of the Global Economy in the Future and Militive Hardware. In the data are Chinese and the united states. WHILE China has done everything to establish itset as the world's dominantManuFacturn Power, The U.S. Has Prioritized Finance and consumption.

The following chart shows the evolution of gdp, consumption, and manUfacturing Value-addded for eurpe, the united states, and China. This highlights the en ORMOUS GROWTH IGDP and Manufacturn Have Surged, Consumption Has Been Represset.

The SOLOW MODEL assumes that over time countries will converge to similar levels of GDP Per Capita. Untries are integratedly prepared to attract this capital. in prACTICE, this is not the cases, white meanss,That Convergence is highly undven.

USING The Framework of the SOLOW MODEL, It is Disheartening to See How UNEVEN The Process of Convergence. Income Classes, Developing Countries Have Tended to Converge with High-Income Countries for The 1980-2023 Period and Even More so for the more data 2001-2023 Period of hyper-Globalization Started by China's ES AS The Benchmark for Convergence, The Results Are Less Convincing. Over The 1980-2023 Period, The U.S. Handily OutPerformed All of the Income Classes When MEASURED In USD Terms. To "Institutional Failure," A VAGUE TESCRIBING the Difficulties Many Country in Priverity Conditions to Attract InvestmentCapital.

Look at the data on a Country-By-Country Basis, The Data is disappointing. This is shopping in the chart below, which infludes all the countries in the imf ABASE for The 1980-2023 PeriodGuoabong Wealth Management. only one-Third of the 135 CountriesIn the Imf DataBase GRW Per Capita at a Faster Annual Rate than the U.S.

The data is much more support in the more data 2001-2023 Period, 75% of the countries converges with the U.S.S.S.S.S. This can be attribud to Lower Growth In TH. e u.S. And the Widly Shared Benefits of Hyper-Globalization.

In the two charts below, the focus is on the more economical imageant countries in both the rich world and emerging markets, as one on some important outliers. E first Chart COVERS The 1980-2023 Period, which is chaperized by the waterington consensus forFree Trade and Capital Flows, The Fall of the Iron Curtain and the Subsequent Integration of Eastern EUROPE and Western EUROPE, and The Sustaind Financialization, I NDEBTEDNESS, and DEINDISTRIALIONATION of Most of the Rich World, Especially The Anglo-Saxon Countries. The Second Chart Covers2001-2023, a Period Marked by "Hyper-Globalization," The China "Miracle" and "China Shock" to Global Trade, The Great Financial Crisis, and The Shale and Silicon Lley Booms in the United States Starting Around 2015-2016,Which Brought About a Powerful Phase of "American Exceptionalism."

Considering the Entire 1980-2023 Period, Well Over Half of The Countries GDP Per Capita at a Slower Rate Rate, 1.4% Achieved by the U.S. Convergers Are Led by By by The "Asian Tigers" (China, KOREA, SINGAPORE, TAIWAN, Indonesia, Vietnam, and THAILAND), Countries that Benefited from the Transfer of Mass-PRODUCTION ManuFacturing Capacity Away From the Rich Countries. ESE Countries have ben the primary beneficiaaries of the "Washington Consensus" While Also Openly Pursuing Anti-Liberal Protectionist Aimedat a controlling body and trade Flows. Eastern European Countries have been winning, benefiting from the transfer of Mass-PRODUCTION Western Europe. The Remaining Winners Include Emerging Market Countries India, Brazil, and Peru, and a Few Special Cases in AsiaAnd Africa Starting from Very Low Bases (Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Ethiopia) and in Latin American (Panama, Dominican Republic, and Costa Rica). OUNTRY that has achieved good gdp PC Growth.

The list of non -conergers over the 1980-2023 Period is long. It Includes Almost All of the Rich World In EUROPE and Asia, Most of Latin America, and Severly Poor ES in Asia (Philippines, PAKISTAN). Middle-East Oil ProducersShow Sharply Negative GDP PC Growth Only Because the Have All Come TO Relying AMOUNTS of Tempory Contract workers.

The Decline in Prosperity Relative to the U.S. For Many Rich Countries is Stunning. The chart belW Shows the GDP Per Capita of Japan and France Relative to the S. Over This 43-Year Period.The U.S. IN 1995 to 0.4 Times in 2023.

Considering the more data 2001-2023 Period, 64% of the countries gdp per Capita at a Higher Annual change 1% Achieved by the U.S. The Winners Include The Bene. FICIARIES of Hyper-Globalization: All the Asian Exporter-Led Economies (China,Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, KOREA, and TAIWAN) Joined by Bangladesh and the Philippines; and all of the eastern eUROPE PLURKEY. a DID MUCH BETTER OVIS PERIOD, Boosted by High Commodity PriceSUFFERED A Total Instificational Collapse with the Chavez Revolution.Ahmedabad Wealth Management

The Most Glaring Loser During This Period has ben the u.k.k., whit has sufffered from Severe DEINDISTRIALIALION and the Instificational Breakdown of Brexit.

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