Agra Stock：Hidden dangers of the Indian stock market： the technology sector has fallen for three consecutive weeks

Hidden dangers of the Indian stock market: the technology sector has fallen for three consecutive weeks

Source: Wall Street See Wen Bu Shuqing

Indian companies' profit growth rate may not be enough to maintain the rise of the stock market. Data compiled by the media show that India's profit growth rate is expected to be 17.7%this year, lower than 20%of the forecast a month ago.

One of the most popular emerging market stock markets in Wall Street, the Indian stock market has a precursor to flame.

The Indian technology stock index has fallen for the third consecutive week, and the income growth of top technology companies is expected to slow down.In addition, India's benchmark stock index NSE NIFTY 50 Index has continued to decline this year, and the index has previously risen by 20%in 2023.

Due to the rapid economic growth, the continuous growth of the middle class, and the continuous increase in manufacturing strength, the Indian stock market stunned the world in 2023.In 2023, global investors' net capital injection from the Indian stock market exceeded 20 billion US dollars, the highest record in the past three years, and promoted its market value for the first time to exceed $ 4 trillion. From the low point in March 2020, the total market value of the Indian stock market increased by about doubled.

However, there are now signs that the profit growth rate of Indian companies may not be enough to maintain the rise in the stock market, especially those top technology companies.

"We are considering a lot of positive factors," said Rajat Agarwal, a bank Asian stock strategist, said, but due to the increase in income growth, the profit margin will still be reduced. The profit growth in 2024 should slowA year when the market returns are very strong. "Agra Stock

According to the data of the media, the profit growth rate of Indian companies this year is expected to be 17.7%, which is less than 20%of the forecast a month ago.The revenue of Jefu Ruiru's Indian company is expected to increase by 14%year -on -year in this quarter, lower than the 38%increase in the previous quarter.

Indian software giant Infosys is expected to announce the slowest growth rate of revenue in 14 years, because its large customers continue to restrict technological expenditures, and the uncertainty of the global economy still exists.At the same time, it is expected that the largest software service exporters in Asia are expected to increase revenue by 2.6%year -on -year in the first quarter, the lowest level since 2020.

In addition, artificial intelligence has replaced many junior IT work, causing some Indian companies to suspend recruitment and freeze salaries.According to the report of Foundit of the job search portal, India's recruitment activities in November decreased by 10%year -on -year, and the recruitment activities in the technology industry decreased by 16%.

The science and technology service industry is India's largest source of employment, accounting for 7.5%of India's total economy of more than US $ 30 trillion, which usually drives urban consumption. Its weakness will have a negative impact on the entire Indian economy.

Analyst wrote in a report last week: "(Wall Street) lacks positive comments on the budget of the IT industry in 2024. In April 2024-2025 fiscal revenue guidance was weak, the profit margin in the second half of the year may cause stock income to revenueOr decline in valuation many times. "

According to an earlier article on Wall Street, Nomura is expected to reach 12%in the Indian stock market in 2024. The Nifty target price at the end of 2024 is set to 24,260 points, and the market should not be overly optimistic.

Nomura believes that the basic trend of the Indian economy in 2024 is that inflation and the economy have slowed slightly, and the growth of GDP in fiscal 2025 will slow from 6.7%to 5.6%.

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